Barnet 1–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Barnet

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

M. Shelton 90'

1/27/2026

League Two · Round 29The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet49%

×Draw24%

Tranmere27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.23

Barnet

1.72

Tranmere

1.23

Barnet creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.03

creates per match

1.15

1.32

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barnet

2.03

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Barnet

1.32

Tranmere

1.42

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

73%

Barnet or Tranmere

76%

Draw or Tranmere

51%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

26%

Tranmere wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

82%

Barnet 2+ goals

51%

Barnet 3+ goals

25%

Tranmere 1+ goals

71%

Tranmere 2+ goals

35%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

64%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnet scores more

49%

level

24%

Tranmere scores more

27%

Barnet at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Shelton

Barnet · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

J. Ironside← C. Jennings

37'

45+6'

52'

54'

58'

59'

63'

A. Hartigan← R. Browne

63'

K. Smith← P. Chinedu

82'

D. Jaiyesimi← R. Glover

90+8'

O. Hawkins← K. Tshimanga

90+1'

R. Smallwood← C. Whitaker

90+1'

N. Kenneh← S. Finley

90'

M. Shelton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnetTranmere

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots5

10Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots5

6On Target2

6Off Target2

9Blocked1

14Inside Box4

7Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

415Total Passes247

295Accurate Passes142

71%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1