Tranmere 0–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

Omar Bugiel 53'

M. Stevens 37'

11/26/2024

League Two · Round 5Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Tranmere41%

×Draw29%

AFC Wimbledon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.00

Tranmere

1.22

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Tranmere creates 22% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tranmere

1.33

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Tranmere

1.07

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

70%

Tranmere or AFC Wimbledon

71%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

34%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

63%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

26%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more

41%

level

29%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Finley

Tranmere · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Joe Murphy

37'

M. Stevens↳ C. Maycock

45+2'

Omar Bugiel

49'

Josh Hawkes

53'

Omar Bugiel↳ J. Tilley

55'

Sam Finley

68'

H. Saunders← J. Hawkes

68'

S. Taylor← O. Patrick

69'

J. Furlong← C. Maycock

73'

Tom Davies

79'

J. Davison← K. Dennis

79'

Z. Bradshaw← C. Wood

80'

J. Kelly← M. Stevens

84'

I. Ogundere← R. Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereAFC

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots14

4Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target4

8Off Target5

4Blocked5

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

472Total Passes312

343Accurate Passes180

73%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

League Two: Tranmere 0–2 AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Tranmere 2-0 in League Two on November 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Stevens (37'), Omar Bugiel (53').

Tranmere controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.

Tranmere vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 0–2 AFC Wimbledon