Tranmere 3–2 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

C. Jennings 71'

R. Apter 45'

H. Saunders 35'

J. Kelly 90+5', 56'

4/20/2024

League Two · Round 45Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Tranmere41%

×Draw29%

AFC Wimbledon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.00

Tranmere

1.22

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Tranmere creates 22% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tranmere

1.33

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Tranmere

1.07

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

70%

Tranmere or AFC Wimbledon

71%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

34%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

63%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

26%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more

41%

level

29%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Kelly

AFC Wimbledon · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

J. Neufville← R. McLean

35'

45+6'

45'

46'

56'

J. Kelly↳ Omar Bugiel

59'

John-Joe O'Toole

71'

C. Jennings↳ L. Norris

75'

A. Sasu← J. Neufville

82'

S. Taylor← R. Apter

83'

J. Hawkes← H. Saunders

83'

K. Dennis← L. Norris

90+3'

O. Kané← C. Merrie

90+5'

J. Kelly↳ Omar Bugiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereAFC

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots13

11Corners3

5Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots13

6On Target4

5Off Target6

9Blocked3

17Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

386Total Passes373

250Accurate Passes234

65%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1