Tranent Juniors 5–2 Stirling University

Tranent Juniors

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Stirling University

11/1/2025

League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranent Juniors80%

×Draw12%

Stirling University9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchStirling University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.44

1.10

Tranent Juniors

3.44

Stirling University

1.10

Tranent Juniors creates 213% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

4.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

4.40

Stirling University

1.00

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

1.20

Stirling University

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Stirling University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

91%

Tranent Juniors or Stirling University

88%

Draw or Stirling University

20%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

62%

Stirling University wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

97%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

85%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

65%

Stirling University 1+ goals

67%

Stirling University 2+ goals

30%

Stirling University 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

90%

Stirling University (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 4.40 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 3.44

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Tranent Juniors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

80%

level

12%

Stirling University scores more

9%

Tranent Juniors at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff