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Stirling University vs Tranent Juniors — League #731 2026

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Tranent Juniors
Tranent Juniors
3/21/2026League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stirling University7%
×Draw11%
Tranent Juniors81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
0.95
Tranent Juniors
3.33

Tranent Juniors creates 251% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stirling University
1.22
Tranent Juniors
5.00

allows per match

Stirling University
1.65
Tranent Juniors
0.67

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Tranent Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
19%
Stirling University or Tranent Juniors
89%
Draw or Tranent Juniors
93%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
2%
Tranent Juniors wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
61%
Stirling University 2+ goals
25%
Stirling University 3+ goals
7%
Tranent Juniors 1+ goals
96%
Tranent Juniors 2+ goals
84%
Tranent Juniors 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
8%
Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Tranent Juniors away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tranent Juniors attack 5.00 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Stirling University scores more
7%
level
11%
Tranent Juniors scores more
81%

Tranent Juniors at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling University vs Tranent Juniors

Tranent Juniors beat Stirling University 5-0 in League #731 on March 21, 2026.