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Tranent Juniors vs Edinburgh University — League #731 2026

Tranent Juniors
Tranent Juniors
FT
8 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Edinburgh University
Edinburgh University
12/22/2022League #731League #731 · Lowland League - 24Foresters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranent Juniors84%
×Draw9%
Edinburgh University7%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranent Juniors
4.50
Edinburgh University
1.40

Tranent Juniors creates 221% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tranent Juniors
4.40
Edinburgh University
1.60

allows per match

Tranent Juniors
1.20
Edinburgh University
4.60

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par
Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Edinburgh University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw
93%
Tranent Juniors or Edinburgh University
91%
Draw or Edinburgh University
16%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+
69%
Edinburgh University wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals
99%
Tranent Juniors 2+ goals
93%
Tranent Juniors 3+ goals
79%
Edinburgh University 1+ goals
75%
Edinburgh University 2+ goals
41%
Edinburgh University 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)
92%
Edinburgh University (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Edinburgh University away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 4.40 + Edinburgh University defence 4.60 → ÷2 → 4.50

Edinburgh University attack 1.60 + Tranent Juniors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more
84%
level
9%
Edinburgh University scores more
7%

Tranent Juniors at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #731: Tranent Juniors 8–0 Edinburgh University

Tranent Juniors beat Edinburgh University 8-0 in League #731 on December 22, 2022.

The match was played at Foresters Park in Tranent.