Edinburgh University 1–2 Tranent Juniors

Edinburgh University

FT

1 – 2

Tranent Juniors

12/12/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundEast Peffermill

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Edinburgh University36%

×Draw21%

Tranent Juniors43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edinburgh UniversityExpected goals in this matchTranent Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.05

Edinburgh University

1.85

Tranent Juniors

2.05

Tranent Juniors creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

2.67

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Edinburgh University

1.00

Tranent Juniors

1.43

allows per match

Edinburgh University

2.67

Tranent Juniors

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edinburgh University+0.00on par

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edinburgh University ↓

Tranent Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Edinburgh University or draw

57%

Edinburgh University or Tranent Juniors

79%

Draw or Tranent Juniors

64%

Winning margin

Edinburgh University wins by 2+

18%

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Edinburgh University 1+ goals

84%

Edinburgh University 2+ goals

55%

Edinburgh University 3+ goals

28%

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

87%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

61%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Edinburgh University (draw refunded)

45%

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edinburgh University at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Tranent Juniors away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edinburgh University attack 1.00 + Tranent Juniors defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tranent Juniors attack 1.43 + Edinburgh University defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Edinburgh University scores more

36%

level

21%

Tranent Juniors scores more

43%

Tranent Juniors at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff