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Tranent Juniors vs Dundee North End — FA Cup 2019

Tranent Juniors
Tranent Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dundee North End
Dundee North End
B. Watson 84' (pen), 45' (pen)
C. McKinley 49'
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tranent Juniors64%
×Draw19%
Dundee North End18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranent Juniors
2.41
Dundee North End
1.19

Tranent Juniors creates 103% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tranent Juniors
3.14
Dundee North End
1.67

allows per match

Tranent Juniors
0.71
Dundee North End
1.67

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par
Dundee North End+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Dundee North End →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw
82%
Tranent Juniors or Dundee North End
81%
Draw or Dundee North End
36%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+
42%
Dundee North End wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals
91%
Tranent Juniors 2+ goals
69%
Tranent Juniors 3+ goals
43%
Dundee North End 1+ goals
70%
Dundee North End 2+ goals
33%
Dundee North End 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)
78%
Dundee North End (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Dundee North End away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + Dundee North End defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Dundee North End attack 1.67 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more
64%
level
19%
Dundee North End scores more
18%

Tranent Juniors at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
B. WatsonPenalty
49'
C. McKinley↳ H. Girdwood
84'
B. WatsonPenalty
Tranent
Dundee
Robert David Horn
Manager: Robert David Horn
L. Toshney
Manager: L. Toshney

FA Cup: Tranent Juniors 3–0 Dundee North End

Tranent Juniors beat Dundee North End 3-0 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: B. Watson (45' pen, 84' pen), C. McKinley (49').