Dundee North End 4–0 Tranent Juniors

Dundee North End

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tranent Juniors

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundFairmuir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dundee North End67%

×Draw19%

Tranent Juniors14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dundee North EndExpected goals in this matchTranent Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.88

Dundee North End

2.19

Tranent Juniors

0.88

Dundee North End creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.67

creates per match

1.43

0.33

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Dundee North End

1.67

Tranent Juniors

1.43

allows per match

Dundee North End

0.33

Tranent Juniors

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundee North End+0.00on par

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundee North End ↓

Tranent Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dundee North End or draw

86%

Dundee North End or Tranent Juniors

81%

Draw or Tranent Juniors

33%

Winning margin

Dundee North End wins by 2+

43%

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dundee North End 1+ goals

89%

Dundee North End 2+ goals

64%

Dundee North End 3+ goals

37%

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

59%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

22%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dundee North End (draw refunded)

83%

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundee North End at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Tranent Juniors away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundee North End attack 1.67 + Tranent Juniors defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tranent Juniors attack 1.43 + Dundee North End defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dundee North End scores more

67%

level

19%

Tranent Juniors scores more

14%

Dundee North End at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dundee North End will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff