Trakai II 2–1 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Trakai II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Panevėžys II

8/22/2022

1 Lyga · Round 4Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II47%

×Draw22%

Panevėžys II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.56

Trakai II

1.96

Panevėžys II

1.56

Trakai II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

1.74

creates per match

1.47

1.66

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Trakai II

1.74

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

Trakai II

1.66

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

69%

Trakai II or Panevėžys II

78%

Draw or Panevėžys II

53%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

26%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

86%

Trakai II 2+ goals

58%

Trakai II 3+ goals

31%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

79%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

46%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

60%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trakai II scores more

47%

level

22%

Panevėžys II scores more

31%

Trakai II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff