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Panevėžys II vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
10/2/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 24Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Panevėžys II36%
×Draw23%
Trakai II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.62
Trakai II
1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 66 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
58%
Panevėžys II or Trakai II
77%
Draw or Trakai II
64%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
18%
Trakai II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
80%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
48%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
22%
Trakai II 1+ goals
83%
Trakai II 2+ goals
52%
Trakai II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
46%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
36%
level
23%
Trakai II scores more
42%

Trakai II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Trakai II

Panevėžys II and Trakai II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.