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Trakai II vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
9/4/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II36%
×Draw24%
Nevėžis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.51
Nevėžis
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 83 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
60%
Trakai II or Nevėžis
76%
Draw or Nevėžis
64%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
17%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
78%
Trakai II 2+ goals
44%
Trakai II 3+ goals
19%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
80%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
48%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
47%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trakai II scores more
36%
level
24%
Nevėžis scores more
40%

Nevėžis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Trakai II 1–4 Nevėžis

Nevėžis beat Trakai II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.