Nevėžis 2–1 Trakai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Trakai II

4/29/2022

1 Lyga · Round 6Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nevėžis48%

×Draw23%

Trakai II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchTrakai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.32

Nevėžis

1.79

Trakai II

1.32

Nevėžis creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 66 away

1.82

creates per match

1.52

1.12

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.82

Trakai II

1.52

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.12

Trakai II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Trakai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

72%

Nevėžis or Trakai II

77%

Draw or Trakai II

52%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

26%

Trakai II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

83%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

53%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

26%

Trakai II 1+ goals

73%

Trakai II 2+ goals

38%

Trakai II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

63%

Trakai II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nevėžis scores more

48%

level

23%

Trakai II scores more

28%

Nevėžis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff