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Trakai II vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
4/14/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Širvintų stadionas (Širvintos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Trakai II35%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.55
Nevėžis
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 90 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.72
Nevėžis
1.73

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Nevėžis
1.39

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
59%
Trakai II or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
65%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
17%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
79%
Trakai II 2+ goals
46%
Trakai II 3+ goals
20%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
82%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
50%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
46%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.66 · 68 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.39 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.72 + Nevėžis defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nevėžis attack 1.73 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trakai II scores more
35%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
41%

Nevėžis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Trakai II 1–0 Nevėžis

Trakai II beat Nevėžis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas (Širvintos).