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Trakai II vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Jonava
Jonava
8/14/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 18Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II40%
×Draw24%
Jonava36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.58
Jonava
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 74 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Jonava
1.43

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
64%
Trakai II or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
60%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
20%
Jonava wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
79%
Trakai II 2+ goals
47%
Trakai II 3+ goals
21%
Jonava 1+ goals
77%
Jonava 2+ goals
44%
Jonava 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
53%
Jonava (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Jonava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jonava attack 1.32 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trakai II scores more
40%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
36%

Trakai II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Jonava

Trakai II beat Jonava 3-0 in 1 Lyga on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.