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Jonava vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Jonava
Jonava
FT
3 – 0
Trakai II
Trakai II
4/22/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Jonava45%
×Draw23%
Trakai II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonava
1.79
Trakai II
1.46

Jonava creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jonava
1.82
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Jonava
1.41
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jonava or draw
68%
Jonava or Trakai II
77%
Draw or Trakai II
55%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+
24%
Trakai II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals
83%
Jonava 2+ goals
53%
Jonava 3+ goals
26%
Trakai II 1+ goals
77%
Trakai II 2+ goals
43%
Trakai II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)
59%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jonava scores more
45%
level
23%
Trakai II scores more
32%

Jonava at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Jonava 3–0 Trakai II

Jonava beat Trakai II 3-0 in 1 Lyga on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Jonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Jonava.