Trakai II 1–2 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Trakai II

FT

1 – 2

Džiugas Telšiai

5/19/2019

1 Lyga · Round 9Trakų naujasis stadionas (Trakai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Trakai II31%

×Draw24%

Džiugas Telšiai45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.69

Trakai II

1.35

Džiugas Telšiai

1.69

Džiugas Telšiai creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 25 away

1.74

creates per match

1.72

1.66

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Trakai II

1.74

Džiugas Telšiai

1.72

allows per match

Trakai II

1.66

Džiugas Telšiai

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

55%

Trakai II or Džiugas Telšiai

76%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

69%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

13%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

74%

Trakai II 2+ goals

39%

Trakai II 3+ goals

15%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

82%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

50%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

40%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.72 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trakai II scores more

31%

level

24%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

45%

Džiugas Telšiai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff