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Džiugas Telšiai vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
1 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
7/3/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Telšių centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai56%
×Draw22%
Trakai II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.95
Trakai II
1.15

Džiugas Telšiai creates 70% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 66 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
2.13
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
0.78
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
78%
Džiugas Telšiai or Trakai II
78%
Draw or Trakai II
44%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
33%
Trakai II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
86%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
58%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
31%
Trakai II 1+ goals
68%
Trakai II 2+ goals
32%
Trakai II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
72%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.13 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.95

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
56%
level
22%
Trakai II scores more
22%

Džiugas Telšiai at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Džiugas Telšiai 1–1 Trakai II

Džiugas Telšiai and Trakai II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on July 3, 2020.

The match was played at Telšių centrinis stadionas in Telšiai.