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Trakai II vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
BFA
BFA
10/22/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II47%
×Draw22%
BFA31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.90
BFA
1.50

Trakai II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 104 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
BFA
2.05

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
69%
Trakai II or BFA
78%
Draw or BFA
53%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
26%
BFA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
85%
Trakai II 2+ goals
56%
Trakai II 3+ goals
29%
BFA 1+ goals
78%
BFA 2+ goals
44%
BFA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
61%
BFA (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

BFA attack 1.34 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trakai II scores more
47%
level
22%
BFA scores more
31%

Trakai II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Trakai II 1–3 BFA

BFA beat Trakai II 3-1 in 1 Lyga on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.