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BFA vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
6/4/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 12BFA Maniežas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

BFA43%
×Draw23%
Trakai II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.72
Trakai II
1.51

BFA creates 14% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 66 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

BFA or draw
66%
BFA or Trakai II
77%
Draw or Trakai II
57%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
22%
Trakai II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
82%
BFA 2+ goals
51%
BFA 3+ goals
25%
Trakai II 1+ goals
78%
Trakai II 2+ goals
44%
Trakai II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
56%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.72

Trakai II attack 1.52 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BFA scores more
43%
level
23%
Trakai II scores more
34%

BFA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: BFA 1–1 Trakai II

BFA and Trakai II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at BFA Maniežas in Vilnius.