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Trakai II vs Be1 NFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
5/28/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 9Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II35%
×Draw25%
Be1 NFA41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.39
Be1 NFA
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Be1 NFA
1.38

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Be1 NFA
1.04

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
59%
Trakai II or Be1 NFA
75%
Draw or Be1 NFA
65%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
16%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
75%
Trakai II 2+ goals
40%
Trakai II 3+ goals
16%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
78%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
45%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
46%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.39

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trakai II scores more
35%
level
25%
Be1 NFA scores more
41%

Be1 NFA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Trakai II 1–1 Be1 NFA

Trakai II and Be1 NFA drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.