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Be1 NFA vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trakai II
Trakai II
10/2/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 24LFF Kauno treniruočių centras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Be1 NFA48%
×Draw24%
Trakai II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.74
Trakai II
1.29

Be1 NFA creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
71%
Be1 NFA or Trakai II
76%
Draw or Trakai II
52%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
26%
Trakai II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
82%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
52%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
25%
Trakai II 1+ goals
72%
Trakai II 2+ goals
37%
Trakai II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
63%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.74

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
48%
level
24%
Trakai II scores more
29%

Be1 NFA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be1 NFA vs Trakai II

Be1 NFA and Trakai II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at LFF Kauno treniruočių centras in Kaunas.