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Tractor Sazi vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
1/22/2026Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Tractor Sazi47%
×Draw29%
Mes Rafsanjan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.29
Mes Rafsanjan
0.83

Tractor Sazi creates 55% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
76%
Tractor Sazi or Mes Rafsanjan
71%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
53%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
22%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
72%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
37%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
14%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
56%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
20%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
66%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
47%
level
29%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
24%

Tractor Sazi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tractor Sazi vs Mes Rafsanjan

Tractor Sazi beat Mes Rafsanjan 4-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 22, 2026.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.