Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Rafsanjan vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
8/26/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 2Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan32%
×Draw31%
Tractor Sazi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Tractor Sazi
1.05

Tractor Sazi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
63%
Mes Rafsanjan or Tractor Sazi
69%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
68%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
11%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
61%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
24%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
7%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
65%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
28%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
46%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
32%
level
31%
Tractor Sazi scores more
37%

Tractor Sazi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Tractor Sazi

Mes Rafsanjan and Tractor Sazi drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 26, 2025.

The match was played at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium in Tafresh.