Tractor Sazi 3–1 Malavan: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Malavan

5/28/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tractor Sazi50%

×Draw29%

Malavan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchMalavan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.71

Tractor Sazi

1.29

Malavan

0.71

Tractor Sazi creates 82% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 54 away

1.45

creates per match

0.69

0.74

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

1.45

Malavan

0.69

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

0.74

Malavan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Malavan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

79%

Tractor Sazi or Malavan

71%

Draw or Malavan

50%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

24%

Malavan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

72%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

37%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

14%

Malavan 1+ goals

51%

Malavan 2+ goals

16%

Malavan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

71%

Malavan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Malavan attack 0.69 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

50%

level

29%

Malavan scores more

21%

Tractor Sazi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff