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Malavan vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
2/22/2026Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 22Sirous Ghayeghran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Malavan34%
×Draw30%
Tractor Sazi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.02
Tractor Sazi
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.09
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Malavan
0.95
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
64%
Malavan or Tractor Sazi
70%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
66%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
13%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
64%
Malavan 2+ goals
27%
Malavan 3+ goals
8%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
65%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
28%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
49%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.09 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Malavan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Malavan scores more
34%
level
30%
Tractor Sazi scores more
36%

Tractor Sazi at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malavan vs Tractor Sazi

Malavan and Tractor Sazi drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Sirous Ghayeghran Stadium in Bandar-e Anzali.