Tractor Sazi 1–1 Malavan: Result & Stats

Tractor Sazi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Malavan

M. Aghajanpour 30'

S. Bazgir 40' (pen)

10/27/2022

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tractor Sazi49%

×Draw30%

Malavan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tractor SaziExpected goals in this matchMalavan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.72

Tractor Sazi

1.25

Malavan

0.72

Tractor Sazi creates 74% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 54 away

1.38

creates per match

0.69

0.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tractor Sazi

1.38

Malavan

0.69

allows per match

Tractor Sazi

0.75

Malavan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Malavan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw

79%

Tractor Sazi or Malavan

70%

Draw or Malavan

51%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

22%

Malavan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

71%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

36%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

13%

Malavan 1+ goals

51%

Malavan 2+ goals

16%

Malavan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

70%

Malavan (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 100 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.38 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Malavan attack 0.69 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more

49%

level

30%

Malavan scores more

21%

Tractor Sazi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

M. Aghajanpour

40'

S. BazgirPenalty

60'

M. Hashemnejad← K. Rezaei

81'

A. Tafazoli← S. Bazgir

87'

A. Khoshkafa← M. Ahmadi

90+1'

A. Yahyazadeh← M. Momeni

Tractor

Malavan

12

55

20

5

70

27

66

99

88

▼

Ahmadi

90

▼

Momeni

7

⚽

▼

30

4

93

2

13

7

16

3

⚽

Aghajanpo

9

Asadi

99

▼

Rezaei

33

Abbaszade

Manager: K. Berdyev

60'▲M. Hashemnejad←▼K. Rezaei

Tractor Sazi substitutes

20Hashemnejad

Manager: M. Zare

81'▲A. Tafazoli←▼S. Bazgir

87'▲A. Khoshkafa←▼M. Ahmadi

90+1'▲A. Yahyazadeh←▼M. Momeni

Malavan substitutes

11Tafazoli4Khoshkafa21Yahyazadeh