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Tractor Sazi vs Havadar — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Havadar
Havadar
2/1/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 18Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tractor Sazi51%
×Draw27%
Havadar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tractor Sazi
1.41
Havadar
0.83

Tractor Sazi creates 70% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tractor Sazi
1.45
Havadar
0.93

allows per match

Tractor Sazi
0.74
Havadar
1.36

finishing

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tractor Sazi ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tractor Sazi or draw
78%
Tractor Sazi or Havadar
73%
Draw or Havadar
49%

Winning margin

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
25%
Havadar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
76%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
41%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
17%
Havadar 1+ goals
56%
Havadar 2+ goals
20%
Havadar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
70%
Havadar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tractor Sazi at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tractor Sazi attack 1.45 + Havadar defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Havadar attack 0.93 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tractor Sazi scores more
51%
level
27%
Havadar scores more
22%

Tractor Sazi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Tractor Sazi 4–0 Havadar

Tractor Sazi beat Havadar 4-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Imam Stadium in Tabriz.