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Havadar vs Tractor Sazi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Havadar
Havadar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tractor Sazi
Tractor Sazi
9/20/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Havadar24%
×Draw31%
Tractor Sazi45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havadar
0.77
Tractor Sazi
1.17

Tractor Sazi creates 52% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 116 away

creates per match

Havadar
0.59
Tractor Sazi
1.16

allows per match

Havadar
1.19
Tractor Sazi
0.96

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par
Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Tractor Sazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Havadar or draw
55%
Havadar or Tractor Sazi
69%
Draw or Tractor Sazi
76%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+
7%
Tractor Sazi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals
54%
Havadar 2+ goals
18%
Havadar 3+ goals
4%
Tractor Sazi 1+ goals
69%
Tractor Sazi 2+ goals
33%
Tractor Sazi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)
35%
Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 0.59 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Tractor Sazi attack 1.16 + Havadar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Havadar scores more
24%
level
31%
Tractor Sazi scores more
45%

Tractor Sazi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Havadar vs Tractor Sazi

Tractor Sazi beat Havadar 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.