Trabzonspor 3–2 Konyaspor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Konyaspor

S. Banza 54', 45+4' (pen)

E. Višća 16'

H. Keyta 89'

A. Demirbağ 24'

9/29/2024

League #203 · Round 7Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Trabzonspor50%

×Draw23%

Konyaspor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchKonyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.23

Trabzonspor

1.77

Konyaspor

1.23

Trabzonspor creates 44% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.42

creates per match

1.32

1.15

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.42

Konyaspor

1.32

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.15

Konyaspor

2.12

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.14scores more

Konyaspor+0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Konyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

73%

Trabzonspor or Konyaspor

77%

Draw or Konyaspor

50%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

27%

Konyaspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

83%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

53%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

26%

Konyaspor 1+ goals

71%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

35%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

65%

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.15 · 9 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.12 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.42 + Konyaspor defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

Konyaspor attack 1.32 + Trabzonspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

50%

level

23%

Konyaspor scores more

27%

Trabzonspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Banza

Trabzonspor · F

8.3

Match Events

16'

E. Višća

24'

A. Demirbağ↳ R. Bazoer

37'

M. Cham← O. Tufan

45+1'

Simon BanzaPenalty confirmed

45+4'

S. BanzaPenalty

46'

J. Lundstram← E. Bardhi

54'

57'

58'

64'

68'

U. Nayir← M. Jevtović

68'

M. İbrahimoğlu← Y. Erdoğan

74'

F. Damjanović← R. Bazoer

76'

Stefano Denswil

80'

Mehmet Umut NayirMissed penalty

84'

S. Saatçı← A. Nwakaeme

86'

89'

90+8'

90+8'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporKonyaspor

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots12

1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.87

4Corners2

18Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked3

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

522Total Passes252

450Accurate Passes180

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-1.62Goals Prevented-1.62

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1