Konyaspor 1–0 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Konyaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Trabzonspor

3/3/2025

League #203 · Round 26Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Konyaspor27%

×Draw22%

Trabzonspor52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KonyasporExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.04

Konyaspor

1.42

Trabzonspor

2.04

Trabzonspor creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.20

creates per match

1.88

2.19

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Konyaspor

1.20

Trabzonspor

1.88

allows per match

Konyaspor

2.19

Trabzonspor

1.64

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Konyaspor-0.20scores less

Trabzonspor+0.26scores more

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw

48%

Konyaspor or Trabzonspor

78%

Draw or Trabzonspor

73%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+

12%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals

76%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

41%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

17%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

87%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

60%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

34%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 6 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.64 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 1.20 + Trabzonspor defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Trabzonspor attack 1.88 + Konyaspor defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Konyaspor scores more

27%

level

22%

Trabzonspor scores more

52%

Trabzonspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff