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Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — League #203 2026

Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
B. Afobe 87'
C. Ekuban 45'
F. Ayité 52'
5/15/2021League #203League #203 · Round 42Medical Park Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Trabzonspor38%
×Draw24%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trabzonspor
1.58
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Trabzonspor
1.50
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor
1.17
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.67

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw
62%
Trabzonspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
76%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
62%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+
19%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals
79%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
47%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
21%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
79%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
47%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
50%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.50 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 2.00 + Trabzonspor defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trabzonspor scores more
38%
level
24%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
38%

Trabzonspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. BakasetasTrabzonsporTrabzonspor · M
8.3

Match Events

34'
Floyd Ayité
45'
C. Ekuban↳ A. Bakasetas
46'
Sandro Lima← S. Dikmen
52'
F. Ayité
72'
Sefa Yılmaz
72'
L. Mugni← R. Berişbek
78'
Vitor Hugo
79'
İ. Karakaş← S. Yılmaz
84'
Anthony NwakaemeGoal cancelled
85'
S. Kınalı← Y. Sarı
85'
B. Afobe← A. Ömür
87'
B. Afobe↳ A. Bakasetas
88'
S. Altıparmak← M. Mert
89'
Y. Mallı← C. Ekuban
90+2'
H. Yeşil← A. Bakasetas

Possession

64%Trabzonspor

Shots

20Trabzonspor

Pass accuracy

53%Trabzonspor

Statistics

TrabzonsporGençlerbirliği
Overview
64%Possession36%
20Total Shots9
9Corners2
7Fouls8
Shots
20Total Shots9
11On Target4
3Off Target5
6Blocked0
12Inside Box5
8Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
637Total Passes346
557Accurate Passes265
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
7Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Trabzonspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 in League #203 on May 15, 2021.

Goals: C. Ekuban (45'), F. Ayité (52'), B. Afobe (87').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Medical Park Stadyumu in Trabzon.