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Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
S. Koita 59'
O. Ulgun 52'
F. Tongya 31'
D. Goutas 5'
E. Muci 67' (pen)
Felipe Augusto 50', 45'
12/22/2025League #203League #203 · Round 17Eryaman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.30%
×Draw22%
Trabzonspor49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.55
Trabzonspor
2.02

Trabzonspor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.50
Trabzonspor
1.80

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2.25
Trabzonspor
1.60

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par
Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw
51%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Trabzonspor
78%
Draw or Trabzonspor
70%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
14%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
79%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
46%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
20%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
87%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
60%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
38%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.50 + Trabzonspor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Trabzonspor attack 1.80 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
30%
level
22%
Trabzonspor scores more
49%

Trabzonspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
O. UlgunGençlerbirliği S.K.Gençlerbirliği S.K. · M
8.6

Match Events

5'
D. Goutas↳ G. Gurpuz
7'
Metehan Mimaroğlu
31'
F. Tongya↳ O. Ulgun
40'
S. Saatci← S. Savic
45'
Danylo Sikan
45'
Felipe Augusto↳ W. Pina
50'
Felipe Augusto↳ E. Muci
52'
O. Ulgun↳ M. Mimaroglu
59'
S. Koita↳ G. Gurpuz
64'
K. Olaigbe← D. Sikan
64'
C. Canak← A. Bosluk
67'
E. MuciPenalty
71'
Wagner Pina
75'
Franco TongyaGoal cancelled
84'
A. Dursun← G. Gurpuz
90+1'
S. Onur← M. Mimaroglu
90+4'
D. Demir← S. Koita

Possession

37%Gençlerbirliği

Shots

18Gençlerbirliği

Pass accuracy

45%Gençlerbirliği

Statistics

GençlerbirliğiTrabzonspor
Overview
37%Possession63%
18Total Shots14
2.43Expected Goals (xG)2.78
6Corners6
6Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots14
9On Target7
7Off Target6
2Blocked1
15Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
37%Possession63%
263Total Passes457
189Accurate Passes399
72%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26
Discipline
6Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

League #203: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4–3 Trabzonspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Trabzonspor 4-3 in League #203 on December 22, 2025.

Goals: D. Goutas (5'), F. Tongya (31'), Felipe Augusto (45', 50'), O. Ulgun (52'), S. Koita (59'), E. Muci (67' pen).

Trabzonspor controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadium in Ankara.