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Trønder-Lyn vs Strindheim — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Trønder-Lyn
Trønder-Lyn
FT
5 – 6
HT: 3 – 4
Strindheim
Strindheim
6/18/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 10Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn21%
×Draw18%
Strindheim61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trønder-Lyn
1.58
Strindheim
2.75

Strindheim creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn
1.62
Strindheim
2.88

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn
2.62
Strindheim
1.55

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par
Strindheim+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Strindheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw
39%
Trønder-Lyn or Strindheim
82%
Draw or Strindheim
79%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+
9%
Strindheim wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals
79%
Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals
47%
Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals
21%
Strindheim 1+ goals
93%
Strindheim 2+ goals
75%
Strindheim 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)
25%
Strindheim (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Strindheim away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Strindheim defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Strindheim attack 2.88 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more
21%
level
18%
Strindheim scores more
61%

Strindheim at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trønder-Lyn vs Strindheim

Strindheim beat Trønder-Lyn 6-5 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sørøya kunstgress in Kvål.