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Strindheim vs Trønder-Lyn — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Strindheim
Strindheim
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Trønder-Lyn
Trønder-Lyn
8/12/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 15Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strindheim66%
×Draw16%
Trønder-Lyn18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strindheim
3.02
Trønder-Lyn
1.54

Strindheim creates 96% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strindheim
3.13
Trønder-Lyn
1.85

allows per match

Strindheim
1.22
Trønder-Lyn
2.92

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par
Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Trønder-Lyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw
82%
Strindheim or Trønder-Lyn
84%
Draw or Trønder-Lyn
34%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+
47%
Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals
95%
Strindheim 2+ goals
80%
Strindheim 3+ goals
57%
Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals
79%
Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals
45%
Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)
79%
Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Trønder-Lyn away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.02

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.85 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Strindheim scores more
66%
level
16%
Trønder-Lyn scores more
18%

Strindheim at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strindheim vs Trønder-Lyn

Strindheim beat Trønder-Lyn 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Leangen Bolig Arena in Trondheim.