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Trønder-Lyn vs Orkla — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Trønder-Lyn
Trønder-Lyn
FT
1 – 1
Orkla
Orkla
6/3/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 8Sørøya kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trønder-Lyn43%
×Draw20%
Orkla37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trønder-Lyn
2.21
Orkla
2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Trønder-Lyn
1.62
Orkla
1.48

allows per match

Trønder-Lyn
2.62
Orkla
2.79

finishing

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par
Orkla+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trønder-Lyn ↓

Orkla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Trønder-Lyn or draw
63%
Trønder-Lyn or Orkla
80%
Draw or Orkla
57%

Winning margin

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+
25%
Orkla wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals
89%
Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals
65%
Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals
38%
Orkla 1+ goals
87%
Orkla 2+ goals
61%
Orkla 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)
54%
Orkla (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trønder-Lyn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Orkla away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.62 + Orkla defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Orkla attack 1.48 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trønder-Lyn scores more
43%
level
20%
Orkla scores more
37%

Trønder-Lyn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trønder-Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Trønder-Lyn 1–1 Orkla

Trønder-Lyn and Orkla drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sørøya kunstgress in Kvål.