Orkla 8–1 Trønder-Lyn: Result & Stats

Orkla

FT

8 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Trønder-Lyn

9/16/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 20Orkla Sparebank Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Orkla48%

×Draw19%

Trønder-Lyn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrklaExpected goals in this matchTrønder-Lyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

2.30

Orkla

2.72

Trønder-Lyn

2.30

Orkla creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

2.53

creates per match

1.85

2.75

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Orkla

2.53

Trønder-Lyn

1.85

allows per match

Orkla

2.75

Trønder-Lyn

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orkla+0.00on par

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orkla ↓

Trønder-Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Orkla or draw

66%

Orkla or Trønder-Lyn

81%

Draw or Trønder-Lyn

52%

Winning margin

Orkla wins by 2+

30%

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Orkla 1+ goals

93%

Orkla 2+ goals

75%

Orkla 3+ goals

50%

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals

90%

Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals

67%

Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Orkla (draw refunded)

58%

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orkla at home — creates 2.53, concedes 2.75 · 32 matches

Trønder-Lyn away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orkla attack 2.53 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.72

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.85 + Orkla defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Orkla scores more

48%

level

19%

Trønder-Lyn scores more

34%

Orkla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Orkla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff