Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Træff vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Træff
Træff
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
6/21/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 12Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Træff72%
×Draw15%
Kristiansund II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Træff
2.83
Kristiansund II
1.11

Træff creates 155% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Træff
3.32
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Træff
0.84
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Træff+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Træff or draw
88%
Træff or Kristiansund II
85%
Draw or Kristiansund II
28%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+
52%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals
94%
Træff 2+ goals
77%
Træff 3+ goals
53%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
67%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
30%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)
85%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 3.32 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.83

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Træff defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Træff scores more
72%
level
15%
Kristiansund II scores more
12%

Træff at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Træff 4–0 Kristiansund II

Træff beat Kristiansund II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Reknesbanen in Molde.