Kristiansund II 0–0 Træff: Result & Stats

Kristiansund II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Træff

10/27/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 26Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kristiansund II27%

×Draw22%

Træff51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund IIExpected goals in this matchTræff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.94

Kristiansund II

1.34

Træff

1.94

Træff creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

1.69

creates per match

1.95

1.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kristiansund II

1.69

Træff

1.95

allows per match

Kristiansund II

1.92

Træff

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Træff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Træff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw

49%

Kristiansund II or Træff

78%

Draw or Træff

73%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

11%

Træff wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

74%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

39%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

15%

Træff 1+ goals

86%

Træff 2+ goals

58%

Træff 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

34%

Træff (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Træff away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Træff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Træff attack 1.95 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kristiansund II scores more

27%

level

22%

Træff scores more

51%

Træff at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff