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Træff vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Træff
Træff
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
8/11/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 16Reknesbanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Træff79%
×Draw13%
Gjelleråsen8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Træff
3.00
Gjelleråsen
0.88

Træff creates 241% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Træff
3.32
Gjelleråsen
0.92

allows per match

Træff
0.84
Gjelleråsen
2.69

finishing

Træff+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Træff ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Træff or draw
92%
Træff or Gjelleråsen
87%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
21%

Winning margin

Træff wins by 2+
60%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Træff 1+ goals
95%
Træff 2+ goals
79%
Træff 3+ goals
56%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
59%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
22%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Træff (draw refunded)
91%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Træff at home — creates 3.32, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Træff attack 3.32 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 3.00

Gjelleråsen attack 0.92 + Træff defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Træff scores more
79%
level
13%
Gjelleråsen scores more
8%

Træff at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Træff 5–0 Gjelleråsen

Træff beat Gjelleråsen 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Reknesbanen in Molde.