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Gjelleråsen vs Træff — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Træff
Træff
4/14/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 2Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen25%
×Draw20%
Træff55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
1.50
Træff
2.29

Træff creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.00
Træff
1.95

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
2.62
Træff
1.00

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Træff+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Træff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
45%
Gjelleråsen or Træff
80%
Draw or Træff
75%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
11%
Træff wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
78%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
44%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
19%
Træff 1+ goals
90%
Træff 2+ goals
66%
Træff 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
31%
Træff (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Træff away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.00 + Træff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Træff attack 1.95 + Gjelleråsen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
25%
level
20%
Træff scores more
55%

Træff at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Træff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gjelleråsen vs Træff

Træff beat Gjelleråsen 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.