TPV 1–1 Kooteepee: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

TPV

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kooteepee

M. Siren 7'

K. Multanen 30' (pen)

2/23/2019

Suomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Pirkkahalli C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TPV11%

×Draw14%

Kooteepee75%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TPVExpected goals in this matchKooteepee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.12

TPV

1.15

Kooteepee

3.12

Kooteepee creates 171% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.17

creates per match

4.07

2.17

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

TPV

1.17

Kooteepee

4.07

allows per match

TPV

2.17

Kooteepee

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TPV+0.00on par

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

Kooteepee →

0–01%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

TPV or draw

25%

TPV or Kooteepee

86%

Draw or Kooteepee

89%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+

Kooteepee wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals

68%

TPV 2+ goals

32%

TPV 3+ goals

11%

Kooteepee 1+ goals

95%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

81%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)

13%

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 4.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.17 + Kooteepee defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kooteepee attack 4.07 + TPV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

TPV scores more

11%

level

14%

Kooteepee scores more

75%

Kooteepee at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

M. Siren

30'

K. MultanenPenalty

77'

J. Oksanen← T. Järvi

82'

H. Belbachir← E. Räisänen

82'

M. Kolsi← J. Lassila

TPV

Kooteepee

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Ylinen

77'▲J. Oksanen←▼T. Järvi

82'▲H. Belbachir←▼E. Räisänen

TPV substitutes

OksanenBelbachirNäykkiKarjanlahti

Manager: A. Arbeiter

82'▲M. Kolsi←▼J. Lassila

Kooteepee substitutes

KolsiEerolaAnttila

Suomen Cup: TPV 1–1 Kooteepee

TPV and Kooteepee drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on February 23, 2019.

Goals: M. Siren (7'), K. Multanen (30' pen).

The match was played at Pirkkahalli C in Tampere.

TPV vs Kooteepee — Suomen Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Suomen Cup: TPV 1–1 Kooteepee