Kooteepee 6–1 TPV: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Kooteepee

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

TPV

T. Usta 90+4'

K. Multanen 72', 51'

A. Mäkijärvi 66'

T. Ollila 63'

A. Pahkasalo 11'

T. Ylinen 75'

8/12/2019

Ykkönen · Round 10Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kooteepee62%

×Draw20%

TPV18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KooteepeeExpected goals in this matchTPV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.08

Kooteepee

2.19

TPV

1.08

Kooteepee creates 103% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 21 away

2.05

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Kooteepee

2.05

TPV

1.10

allows per match

Kooteepee

1.05

TPV

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par

TPV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

TPV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw

82%

Kooteepee or TPV

80%

Draw or TPV

38%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+

39%

TPV wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals

89%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

64%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

37%

TPV 1+ goals

66%

TPV 2+ goals

29%

TPV 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

78%

TPV (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

TPV away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.05 + TPV defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

TPV attack 1.10 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kooteepee scores more

62%

level

20%

TPV scores more

18%

Kooteepee at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

42'

51'

63'

64'

M. Ahonen← E. Räisänen

65'

E. Kolu← A. Goljahanpoor

66'

A. Mäkijärvi

70'

K. Liikonen← Manel Subirats

72'

A. Makijarvi

72'

K. Multanen

75'

T. Usta← K. Multanen

75'

T. Ylinen

83'

J. Oksanen← M. Severino

90+4'

T. Usta

Kooteepee

TPV

12

13

2

3

24

16

10

9

▼

Goljahanp

11

⚽

Ylinen

14

▼

Räisänen

26

▼

1

62

5

4

2

▼

Subirats

14

⚽

Ollila

21

⚽

Mäkijärvi

23

Lindfors

17

⚽2

▼

Multanen

10

⚽

Pahkasalo

Manager: A. Arbeiter

70'▲K. Liikonen←▼Manel Subirats

75'▲T. Usta←▼K. Multanen

Kooteepee substitutes

33Liikonen29Usta19Eerola26Paavola31Kopra44Anttila

Manager: A. Ylinen

64'▲M. Ahonen←▼E. Räisänen

65'▲E. Kolu←▼A. Goljahanpoor

83'▲J. Oksanen←▼M. Severino

TPV substitutes

21Ahonen20Kolu17Oksanen1Karjanlahti4Siren23Rantala25Mattila

Ykkönen: Kooteepee 6–1 TPV

Kooteepee beat TPV 6-1 in Ykkönen on August 12, 2019.

Goals: A. Pahkasalo (11'), K. Multanen (51', 72'), T. Ollila (63'), A. Mäkijärvi (66'), T. Ylinen (75'), T. Usta (90+4').

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka).

Kooteepee vs TPV — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: Kooteepee 6–1 TPV