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TP Mazembe vs Pyramids FC — CAF Champions League 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
P. Mwamba 90+2'
G. Likonza 45+1'
J. Beya 32'
2/24/2024CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 5Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

TP Mazembe49%
×Draw29%
Pyramids FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.27
Pyramids FC
0.75

TP Mazembe creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
1.75
Pyramids FC
1.00

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.50
Pyramids FC
0.78

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
78%
TP Mazembe or Pyramids FC
71%
Draw or Pyramids FC
51%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
22%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
72%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
36%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
14%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
53%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
17%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
69%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 20 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 1.75 + Pyramids FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pyramids FC attack 1.00 + TP Mazembe defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
49%
level
29%
Pyramids FC scores more
22%

TP Mazembe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
G. LikonzaTP MazembeTP Mazembe · M
8.9

Match Events

10'
Ibrahim Blati Toure
20'
Kévin Mondeko
23'
Mahmoud Dunga
32'
J. Beya↳ G. Likonza
45+1'
G. Likonza↳ F. Traoré
46'
Ibrahim Adel← Ramadan Sobhi
46'
Islam Issa← Mohanad Lasheen
71'
Cheick Fofana
75'
O. Tshikomb← C. Fofana
75'
P. Mwamba← M. Ngimbi
76'
Islam Issa
76'
F. Lakay← Mostafa Fathi
78'
Fagrie Lakay
83'
Marwan Hamdy← F. Mayele
87'
Mohamed Hamdi
89'
B. Haïnikoye← F. Traoré
90+7'
Philippe Kinzumbi
90+6'
Boubacar Hainikoye
90'
P. Kinzumbi← J. Beya
90'
S. Mukoko← G. Likonza
90+2'
P. Mwamba

Possession

47%TP

Shots

11TP

Pass accuracy

51%TP

Statistics

TPPyramids
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots8
5Corners8
24Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target3
3Off Target3
4Blocked2
4Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
345Total Passes393
251Accurate Passes275
73%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
24Fouls14
4Yellow Cards5
3Offsides1

Match Recap: TP Mazembe vs Pyramids FC

TP Mazembe beat Pyramids FC 3-0 in CAF Champions League on February 24, 2024.

Goals: J. Beya (32'), G. Likonza (45+1'), P. Mwamba (90+2').

Pyramids FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.