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Pyramids FC vs TP Mazembe — CAF Champions League 2019

Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
F. Lakay 54'
11/24/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group A - 130 June Air Defence Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pyramids FC66%
×Draw21%
TP Mazembe13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pyramids FC
1.92
TP Mazembe
0.70

Pyramids FC creates 174% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pyramids FC
2.89
TP Mazembe
0.57

allows per match

Pyramids FC
0.83
TP Mazembe
0.95

finishing

Pyramids FC+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pyramids FC ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pyramids FC or draw
87%
Pyramids FC or TP Mazembe
79%
Draw or TP Mazembe
34%

Winning margin

Pyramids FC wins by 2+
40%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Pyramids FC 1+ goals
85%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
57%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
30%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
50%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
16%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
84%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pyramids FC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pyramids FC attack 2.89 + TP Mazembe defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.92

TP Mazembe attack 0.57 + Pyramids FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pyramids FC scores more
66%
level
21%
TP Mazembe scores more
13%

Pyramids FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. ChibiPyramids FCPyramids FC · M
7.7

Match Events

54'
F. Lakay↳ F. Mayele
58'
Philippe Kinzumbi
63'
J. Beya← F. Traoré
63'
P. Mwamba← A. Oladapo
63'
C. Fofana← L. Ameka
72'
Mahmoud Marei← Karim Hafez
79'
Mohamed Chibi
81'
B. Touré← F. Lakay

Possession

61%Pyramids

Shots

14Pyramids

Pass accuracy

54%Pyramids

Statistics

PyramidsTP
Overview
61%Possession39%
14Total Shots5
2Corners1
12Fouls25
Shots
14Total Shots5
3On Target2
8Off Target1
3Blocked2
9Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
572Total Passes368
459Accurate Passes252
80%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls25
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

CAF Champions League: Pyramids FC 1–0 TP Mazembe

Pyramids FC beat TP Mazembe 1-0 in CAF Champions League on November 24, 2023.

Goals: F. Lakay (54').

Pyramids FC controlled possession (61%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at 30 June Air Defence Stadium in Cairo.