TP Mazembe 3–0 Nyuki: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

TP Mazembe

FT

3 – 0

Nyuki

9/22/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

TP Mazembe90%

×Draw8%

Nyuki2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TP MazembeExpected goals in this matchNyuki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.27

TP Mazembe

2.92

Nyuki

0.27

TP Mazembe creates 981% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 9 away

2.52

creates per match

0.22

0.31

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

TP Mazembe

2.52

Nyuki

0.22

allows per match

TP Mazembe

0.31

Nyuki

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Nyuki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Nyuki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–13%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–018%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–013%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw

98%

TP Mazembe or Nyuki

92%

Draw or Nyuki

10%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+

72%

Nyuki wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals

94%

TP Mazembe 2+ goals

78%

TP Mazembe 3+ goals

55%

Nyuki 1+ goals

24%

Nyuki 2+ goals

3%

Nyuki 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)

98%

Nyuki (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Nyuki away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Nyuki defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Nyuki attack 0.22 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

TP Mazembe scores more

90%

level

8%

Nyuki scores more

2%

TP Mazembe at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff