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Nyuki vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Nyuki
Nyuki
FT
1 – 5
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
2/9/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nyuki15%
×Draw22%
TP Mazembe63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nyuki
0.77
TP Mazembe
1.85

TP Mazembe creates 140% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Nyuki
1.00
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Nyuki
2.08
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Nyuki+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nyuki ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nyuki or draw
37%
Nyuki or TP Mazembe
78%
Draw or TP Mazembe
85%

Winning margin

Nyuki wins by 2+
4%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Nyuki 1+ goals
54%
Nyuki 2+ goals
18%
Nyuki 3+ goals
4%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
84%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
55%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Nyuki (draw refunded)
19%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nyuki at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nyuki attack 1.00 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Nyuki defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nyuki scores more
15%
level
22%
TP Mazembe scores more
63%

TP Mazembe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Nyuki 1–5 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Nyuki 5-1 in Ligue 1 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.