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TP Mazembe vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
6/18/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 13Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

TP Mazembe62%
×Draw23%
Motema Pembe15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.73
Motema Pembe
0.72

TP Mazembe creates 140% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 83 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
85%
TP Mazembe or Motema Pembe
77%
Draw or Motema Pembe
38%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
35%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
82%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
52%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
25%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
51%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
16%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
80%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
62%
level
23%
Motema Pembe scores more
15%

TP Mazembe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TP Mazembe vs Motema Pembe

TP Mazembe beat Motema Pembe 2-0 in Ligue 1 on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.