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Motema Pembe vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
0 – 3
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
6/22/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe29%
×Draw29%
TP Mazembe43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
0.97
TP Mazembe
1.25

TP Mazembe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 97 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
57%
Motema Pembe or TP Mazembe
71%
Draw or TP Mazembe
71%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
10%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
62%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
25%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
7%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
71%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
36%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
40%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.97

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
29%
level
29%
TP Mazembe scores more
43%

TP Mazembe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe 0 – 3 TP Mazembe

TP Mazembe beat Motema Pembe 3-0 in Ligue 1 on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.