TP Mazembe 1–0 Maniema Union: Result & Stats

TP Mazembe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maniema Union

6/21/2025

Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 14Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

TP Mazembe55%

×Draw25%

Maniema Union20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TP MazembeExpected goals in this matchManiema Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.86

TP Mazembe

1.61

Maniema Union

0.86

TP Mazembe creates 87% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

2.52

creates per match

1.42

0.31

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

TP Mazembe

2.52

Maniema Union

1.42

allows per match

TP Mazembe

0.31

Maniema Union

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Maniema Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw

80%

TP Mazembe or Maniema Union

75%

Draw or Maniema Union

45%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+

29%

Maniema Union wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals

80%

TP Mazembe 2+ goals

48%

TP Mazembe 3+ goals

22%

Maniema Union 1+ goals

58%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

21%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)

73%

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TP Mazembe scores more

55%

level

25%

Maniema Union scores more

20%

TP Mazembe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff